Oscar Predictions 2026: Who Will Win—and Why

[The Oscar statuette, presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.]

Editor’s Note: Every year around the Oscars, Founding Fuel invites film critic and our contributor Ronaan Roy to write a curtain-raiser ahead of the ceremony—his sharp, irreverent guide to the films, performances and craft that stand out.

This year, we asked Ronaan to begin with a quick prediction piece: who is likely to win, who might cause an upset, and which films are worth seeking out before the awards are handed out.

For readers who want to go deeper, he has also written a longer companion essay looking at the cultural patterns behind this year’s nominations. You’ll find a link to that piece at the end of this article.

The 98th Academy Awards, hosted by comedian and television host Conan O’Brien, will be streamed live in India from 4:30 AM IST on Monday, March 16, on JioHotstar.

Fifth year running, the good folk at Founding Fuel have commissioned/shanghai’d me into writing an article about the Oscars. This is also the 11th year I’ve written such a piece.

In a fast-paced world where the next reel could well be about nuclear armageddon, audiences don’t always have time for overwrought ponderings as a critic writes 80,000 words on what should win Best Film. So instead, we’re going to do a short, sweet sum-uppance of the Oscar predictions. If the curious and more leisured among you want a deeper analysis, we’ll link to a longer article that has more detail and all that delectable adornment us armchair critics are known for.

Best Picture nominees—in one-line takes (reverse order)

F1
Fast and fantastic. One of our last great superstars—Brad Pitt’s gorgeous charisma carries a film with surprisingly clever strategy but an unsurprisingly predictable plot.

Train Dreams
Beautiful and mesmerising sense-memory telling of a train builder’s life in the 19th-century Midwest, and a sparkling reminder that trains are slower than Formula One race cars.

Frankenstein
We finally see a Frankenstein where the production designers have plenty of time, infinite budget, and unfettered access to internet-based reference material (with the capitalist caveat that most of the world will see only the IMAX shot footage on a small screen).

The Secret Agent
A sprawling painting of Brazil during the 1977 political turmoil that is gripping, ludicrous and fantastic, until it abruptly runs out of story.

Bugonia
Conspiracy and class wars subvert expectations in this thrilling but divisive masterpiece from the wild mind of Yórgos Lánthimos.

Marty Supreme
A sports-movie-cum-fictional-biopic of a nauseatingly unlikeable ping-pong player who runs headfirst into as much life-ruining folly as humanly possible.

Hamnet
Mr and Mrs The Bard’s achingly boring love story in the first half is followed by a heartbreaking story of loss and reconciliation in the second.

Sentimental Value
Film as an art fractures family relationships, because it is the only true way this family can connect. Oh, there’s a house.

Sinners
A period drama about Black identity punctuated by musical identity is unexpectedly attacked, and elevated, by vampires.

One Battle After Another
A veiled commentary on pure bloodlines is a veiled commentary on immigration is a veiled commentary on extremist identity, and the best movie of the year. Not to worry, extreme right, it has more than enough guns.

“One Battle After Another… is a veiled commentary on pure bloodlines, immigration and extremist identity, and the best movie of the year.”

There is a chance that the very well-liked Sinners might win due to the system of Oscar voting versus the political polarisation of One Battle After Another, but it’s unlikely.

Major category predictions

Best Actor
Likely winner: Timothee Chalamet
Though it’s not his best performance of all time. The only other likely contender is Leonardo DiCaprio, despite a subtle performance of two twins from Michael B. Jordan.

Best Actress
A toss-up between the phenomenal Jessie Buckley for Hamnet and Rose Byrne for the overwhelmed mother in If I Had Legs I Would Kick You. Ultimately, despite the incredible chops of Jessie Buckley (I’ll get into the criticisms in my longer review), Rose Byrne has a lot of layers in her performance from scene one, and is operating in a flawless accent that is not her own, which makes her my choice.

Best Supporting Actor
A cinch: Sean Penn, in a memorable and deranged turn as the antagonist in One Battle After Another, where he manages to be both heartbreaking and menacing.

Best Supporting Actress
An odd set of nominees. Both Ariana Grande for Wicked and Nina Hoss for Hedda arguably deserve this more than any of the actresses nominated in this strangely lightweight category. Even Oona Chaplin deserves to be nominated for Avatar: Fire and Ash, though she’s unlikely to win due to the nature of performance capture.

In the end, I think it’s going to go to the powerful yet brief performance of Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another.

Writing, directing and crafts

Both Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay are a lock for Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, as might also be Best Editing, if it wasn’t for F1’s super editing clarity.

More on this in the longer article, but in short, adapting drug wars from the book into an immigration confrontation was a masterstroke bordering on prescience. And the fact that we’re balancing multiple storylines without losing narrative tension is the reason it would score highly on Screenplay and perhaps Editing.

Best Original Screenplay is likely to be Sinners, which by nature of it being genre-defying is definitely original. It does face tough competition in this category however, so I wouldn’t be too upset by an upset here.

Best Production Design, Best Costumes and Best Make-up and Hairstyling will be a runaway win for the team behind Frankenstein.

Best Visual Effects must be Avatar: Fire and Ash, though there’s not a single slouch on this list.

Best Original Score is likely to be the inspired score from Bugonia, which is a stand-out this year.

Best International Feature

Two films made it to Best Picture, and once again every single film here is worth your time.

Even though Sentimental Value is likely to take home this prize, if I were to recommend just one film from this entire list of Oscar nominees, you would be well served to watch The Voice of Hind Rajab, a taut 88-minute zinger of a film, and the only foreign film here that didn’t get any other nomination.

That’s it for this year.

If you want a deeper look at what this year’s nominations reveal about the stories cinema is rewarding—and what that says about the moment we’re living in—read Ronaan Roy’s companion essay here.